Monday, May 9, 2011

Motherland focus

This Mother's day I dedicate to my homeland who is diagnosed with widespread cancer and is undergoing severe chemotherapy whose side effects are severe and of course, testing the stamina of its financial and social existence.

We (westerners that is) are witnessing two large experiments that are in process. We are all more or less trapped in an era of huge financial imbalances characterised by over-borrowing, low productivity, high unemployment, and inflation or stagflation. The scale of the cancerous regions is huge and these regions are tightly linked to each other as if from the same family.

My motherland is inflicted by severe incidents of anxiety-panic attacks coming form market participants that are uncertain about the political decisiveness of the European family and aware of the complex conflicting interests within the newly formed European Union.

The Euro, composing one quarter of global reserves, has been impacted to the disadvantage of exporters. The cost of borrowing of the periphery of the EU has skyrocketed. The unemployment has ballooned. The lending frenzy of the banks has frozen.

Only tourism seems to be the service sector that has potential to provide revenues, employment, and growth in these sunlight countries. My motherland has to brand herself and leverage her natural and cultural heritage. She needs to make sure that quality and locally made and grown products, are what greets the tourists and not quick short-term profitability.

Strict rules: only Greek music everywhere, only Greek food everywhere, agricultural tourism, educational (history and language) tourism, only Greek cultural ways everywhere.
Globalisation is ironically, a great environnent to promote localisation and preserve local identities.

Bon courage Motherland.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Oil backwardation-contago and Rating agency restructurings

This a.m. I foresee a greater possibility for an imminent restructuring of rating agency roles in sovereign ratings rather than a Greek debt restructuring. Is the S&P negative US outlook, a global wake-up call for the role of private rating agencies on sovereigns? And if so, what is the alternative?
Is this a catch up with the leading Chinese rating agencies that downgraded the US last year?

Markets are down today and correlations are not working well. Stocks and commodities are down. Vols and rates are working as expected from text books.

Energy is dropping but the backwardation remains in Brent oil. And Crude WTI futures have contago for the first year and then go into "normal" backwardation.

CRUDE WTI FUTURES (spot in red)














BENT OIL FUTURES (spot in red)















Oil backwardation, which means that futures are trading below spot prices, is considered normal, and results in positive yield when rolling over maturing futures contracts. Bakcwardation historically, persists when producers hedge (of course from fear of future reductions in demand).
Contago on the other hand, means that futures are trading higher than spot prices and historically, persists when consumers and speculators dominate the market (afraid of inflation, in higher price environments) OR when there are supply shocks that arent perceived to last for very long (like Libya problem).

For investors it is important to understand whether the commodity is in backwardation or contago or both. Backwardation offers an extra source of return, that is the positive roll when maturing futures contracts are rolled over. When in the area of contago, the return is reduced by the negative roll cost.
So, when investing in oil through an ETF as USO, one should watch the front shape of the futures curve since this ETF invests in the short term oil futures contracts and has a negative yield. As a result, DBO and USL which are also Oil ETFs, but use the middle of the futures curve, which is backwardation, have outperformed USO.

Flash back thought, regarding the rating outlook for the US: "Maybe S&P will clarify that they see a backwardation formation for the rating outlook of the US but beleive that the US can switch into Contago ......



Monday, April 4, 2011

Advice to the IPOD and IPAD generation.

IPOD generation stands for Insecure Pressured Over-taxed Debt-ridden generation. Believe it or not, the term has a wiki page that explains its 2005 British origin.
As Facebook was predominately a social network for youngsters that has now captured the middle class, so has the term IPOD extended and embraced people over 35yrs old.

IPOD personalities live in all G-7 countries and globalization has spread this virus to all G-20 in less than two decades.

Now, here comes the IPAD and through its applications you can closely watch all the Angry Birds episodes-versions: food inflation, energy inflation, education inflation, services inflation, technology deflation, clothes deflation, working-force shrinkages, rising Asian wages, currency peg tensions against Central bank quantitative easings, social unrests in warm countries, interest rate tightenings and easings, European family tensions, islands that move 8 feet, radioactive water that gets dumped into the ocean,......

Watch our Irrational Pressured Absurd Debtwounded world for less than $600.

Trading advice for the IPOD and IPAD people:
Buy USD for a currency outperformance. Buy US real estate for real estate outperformance. Become self-employed in the US. Vacation at home with an IPAD.

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Shangaied markets, Sponge Bob, and Soy Sauce

FFF = Shanghaied markets, Sponge Bob, and a Soy Sauce marinade

FINANCE: Markets haven't been Shanghaied

When there is an earthquake in nature, humans are forced to go back to traditions and re-consider their values and attitudes in life. The recent Japanese natural disaster even though coupled with a humanly induced nuclear disaster, hasn't managed to affect the financial markets considerably. Japan's main island has moved more than 2 meters but stock markets arent Shangaied.

Shanghaied: means to kidnap (a man) for compulsory service aboard a ship, especially after drugging him. A verb derived from the former custom of kidnapping sailors to man ships going to China.

Hoi polloi, of Greek origin, means the common people, the masses as in: America’s cereal queen, Marjorie Meriweather Post, had the same problems that the hoi polloi have – philandering husbands, messy divorces, etc.”

So the hoi polloi, that really constitute the stock market, have decided that we shouldn't be Shanghaied. QE may be ending in the US but it could be exported from Japanese headquarters. The euphoric stock market party continues and no reports of kidnapping has been able to spook the market.

FUN:SongeBob

"Shanghaied" is a SpongeBob Square Pants episode from Season 2.

It is an average day in Bikini Bottom, until a giant anchor demolishes SpongeBob SquarePants' pineapple house and Squidward Tentacles' Easter Island head. Squidward climbs the rope, ready to complain. SpongeBob goes too, and so does Squidward and Patrick. They find out that the ship belongs to the Flying Dutchman, and they are forced to be part of his crew forever.

Squidward is sent to "The Fly of Despair"(A huge zipper that is gateway to an other-world,) for his sarcastic remarks, while SpongeBob and Patrick have to help the Flying Dutchman scare people. They can't do it and Patrick's poor steering also causes extensive damage to the Dutchman's ship and he ultimately decides to eat them. They're locked in their room, and the Flying Dutchman decides to eat them. So they escape through the perfume department. They take the Flying Dutchman's dining sock because he can't eat without wearing it. SpongeBob and the Flying Dutchman fight for the sock, tug 'o war style, but when it is about to reach its elastic limit, the Flying Dutchman decides to grant them three wishes.

The episode ends with Sponge, Pat and Squid turned into fruit and the vegetarian Dutchman chasing them around his ship which was turned into a hippie van.

FOOD: Soy Sauce

A basic Chinese Soy sauce marinade for chicken, beef or even vegetables: 2/3 cup of Soy sauce, ¼ olive oil, 2 tsp fresh ginger, 2 tsp dry mustard, and 6! Minced garlic cloves.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Leveraged ETFs: A lesson triggered from last week's trading

Excerpts from my journal since the Tohoku earthquake struck Japan.

3/11 - Friday afternoon caught my trading self off guard. My emotional self starred with that frozen observer look at the news. I skipped dinner all together.
3/12-3/13 - my trading self-partner, that runs my opportunistic fund, paid me a visit and brainstormed me about the strategic investment importance of this instability. The humanitarian disaster was not be undermined but since duality is everywhere in nature, I started salivating with the opportunistic trading possibility.
Monday 3/14 - The innate idea that a leveraged short Japan ETF was the right weapon was faced with no doubts. The Nikkei closed down 6% and had dropped as much as 16%. How do I get in EWV (2x leverage)? It opened about 20% higher than Friday's close (above 40 from 34). I placed a limit order at 39.5 for the first couple of trading hours and then canceled.

I continued watching this beast, EWV, the entire week. I can comfortably call this instrument a ONE DAY GAPPING SPATULA that can deliver roughly what it promises, which is twice the inverse DAILY return of the index.
EWV only worked on MONDAY. It delivered (from closing to closing) 15% when the Nikkei was down 6%. Tuesday it was virtually flat compared to more than 10% down on the index.

Monday - EWV was awesome (promises and then some)
Tuesday - EWV shadow-self appears (missed expectations by 20%)
Wed - EWV erratic behavior but suits me (offered 20% in excess of expectations)
Thursday - EWV shadow self re-appears ((missed expectations by 13%)
Friday - EWV flat

And if I had been blinded somehow through all week's turmoil and held onto my position and assuming that somehow I had entered EWV at Friday's close level (what I market timer I would have been), then my SPATULA would have dripped and instead of serving me a pancake the size of 20% the index (Nikkei's down 10%), it actually only offered a 6% mini-pancake.

When you see or hear, Ultra short or Long ETFs, please run away. They do what they promise sometime from 9am-3:30pm, and if you read carefully their prospectus they warn you too (but who reads these scenarios until you get burnt). They have a scenario table that shows that over a year, you may miss the double tracking promised by alot. They mention volatility as another factor that can mess up the ETF performance.

Leveraged ETFS, dont hold the index, or some highly correlated basket of securities. They hold derivatives, i.e. futures and/or options. So, the tricky part is that the ETF manager needs to maintain exposure to Double the index, so the holdings are rebalanced as the market moves to reduce or increase the exposure and keep it around 2.
Rebalancing means that returns are calculated on the rebalanced basis every day. And on top of that, the compounding that always works in favor of any "natural" stock portfolio, is diminished (to say the least) as the derivative holdings are rebalanced.

UNLESS YOU PLAN TO USE A ONE DAY SPATULA, TO GRAB MAYBE A FALLING KNIFE OR TO FLIP AN INFLATING BALLON, dont use these leveraged ETFs.

Additional References:

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority has issued warnings about leveraged ETFs. In June 2009,they declared these funds “unsuitable” for most investors. The alert spooked some brokers. Ameriprise, Edward Jones and UBS have stopped offering leveraged ETFs to clients altogether. Annual performance of leveraged bull and bear market ETFs has been discussed (see The Dangers of Leveraged ETFs: 2009 market losers, FAS and FAZ)

Mornigstar has also issued warnigns. In an atricle Warning: Leveraged and Inverse ETFs Kill Portfolios
Morningstar ETF analyst Bradley Kay has also explained that bull or bear levearged ETFs may have a use as an intraday hegding tool but are prone to wildly unexpected results if used for longer than one day holding periods or for speculative use.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

GPI is plunging as we breath!!

The best time to remind ourselves of the need to substitute GDP as the main measure of economic progress is when we are living through an experience that brings the GDP shortcomings in the spotlight.

Thousands of lines of thought in cyberspace have been typed: "...beyond the human-emotional disaster, the black swan of the Japan earthquake, will result in economic creation..." and the benefits maybe be felt indirectly and globally.

Remember, GDP measures what is produced, but ignores what is required to create that production (i.e. the costs (financial and non-financial, depletions etc)).
In the early 1970's William Nordhaus and James Tobin proposed a new measure, the Measure of Economic Welfare (MEW). As early as the 1980, Xenophen Zolotas proposed another measure, the Economic Aspects of Welfare (EAW). In the late 1980's Herman Daly and John Cobb proposed a measure that they called the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW). Then, in 1995, Clifford Cobb, Ted Halstead and Jonathan Rowe proposed the GPI, Genuine Progress Indicator, which factored in the value of volunteer work, cost of crime and family breakdown, the cost of underemployment, ozone depletion and the loss of old growth forests.

GPI (Genuine progress indicator) looks at economic activity from the point of view of the impact it has on the individual and society and not only as a financial transaction.
So under GDP, for example, high crime rates and environmental damage are all good for the economy because they create business (jobs, consumption of products ect) whereas voluntering and education has negligible contribution.

Conversely, under GPI low crime rates, pursuing education and volunteer work, and careful stewardship of the environment are all good for the economy.

Below is a historical comparison of GDP and GPI since 1950 which clearly shows the divergence between the two economic indicators and the fact that we have not been doing so well, actually.


Monday, March 14, 2011

Quantitative easing in Japan

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has poured 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) of emergency funds in the biggest one-day operation in order to provide liquidity in the markets following the earthquake disaster. BOJ also, offered to buy 3 trillion yen of government bonds from lenders through repos starting March 16.